China's new export curbs draw a line around its AI crown jewels

China's proposed artificial intelligence export curbs aim to safeguard its most valuable AI technologies by restricting their export while allowing foreign access to them. The policy, released on October 16, reflects a strategic shift that aligns with the preferences of both the Chinese leadership and major industry players. This approach keeps IP and R&D activities within China, while enabling foreign companies to use the technology through access agreements rather than direct acquisition of models or data.

The draft rules distinguish between foreign customers using Chinese AI services and foreign companies seeking to obtain the models, data, or expertise needed to operate or reproduce them independently. This distinction underscores a broader effort to control the flow of advanced AI capabilities while maintaining economic engagement with global markets. The policy is part of a larger strategy to manage the intensifying technological rivalry with the US.

The restrictions would add 23 AI-related technologies to a list of technologies banned or restricted from export. These include advanced AI models, agents capable of performing tasks with minimal human input, and other cutting-edge technologies. The draft also specifies three criteria for classification: the computational power required to train a model, measured by a threshold of 10 to the power of 26 calculations; the size of the model, with a minimum of 2 trillion parameters; and the deployment of AI in specific applications.

The policy is expected to increase costs for foreign companies seeking to access Chinese AI technologies, as they may need to navigate more complex licensing processes. It could also lead to greater vendor lock-in, as companies may rely more heavily on Chinese firms for access to advanced AI capabilities. Additionally, the move may prompt increased scrutiny of governance and compliance practices in the AI sector, as companies adjust to new regulatory frameworks.

The export curbs represent a significant development in China's AI strategy and are likely to have long-term implications for the global AI landscape. As the policy continues to evolve, its impact on international collaboration, competition, and innovation will become clearer. The rules are still being developed, and their final form may influence how AI technologies are shared and used across borders.