China's drive to ramp up renewable power for its fast-expanding AI data centre sector is running into hurdles, as industry experts warn that forecasting peak demand remains difficult and grid operators are wary of taking on added risk. Ensuring reliable electricity for AI-focused data centres has become a strategic priority, underscored in China's 2026 government work report released earlier this year, which pledged stronger integration between computing infrastructure and power supply networks.

The challenge lies in aligning the unpredictable nature of AI data centre demand with the intermittent supply of renewable energy sources. Grid operators are hesitant to commit to large-scale renewable energy integration without more accurate demand forecasts, which are difficult to obtain given the rapid pace of AI development and the variability in data centre operations.

Authorities aim for renewables to supply four-fifths of the sector's total power consumption by 2030, a sharp rise from just 11% in 2023. However, power demand from China's data centres is projected to rise by 300 billion to 500 billion kilowatt-hours between 2026 and 2030, accounting for 18% of total electricity demand growth over the period. This surge in demand complicates the transition to renewable energy sources.

The uncertainty surrounding demand forecasting and the reluctance of grid operators to take on additional risk could delay the transition to renewable energy in AI data centres. This may result in increased reliance on fossil fuels, higher operational costs, and potential delays in meeting China's 2030 renewable energy targets. Additionally, the lack of coordination between computing infrastructure and power supply networks could lead to inefficiencies and increased grid instability.

Experts suggest that adjusting 15% of the power consumption loads could significantly reduce capacity expansion pressure on the grid over the next three to five years. However, achieving this requires better coordination between data centre operators and grid managers. Without such collaboration, the goal of increasing renewable energy use in AI projects may remain out of reach, despite the government's ambitious targets.